What the signals say together
The long-term trend is up — price is above its 200-day line and the 50/200 is in a golden cross. Participation is broad: most sectors are in their own uptrend, which makes the move more durable. The tension: volatility is unusually low (complacency) — strength and stretch at the same time, which is normal late in an up-leg but worth respecting. And the market is expensive: its Shiller CAPE (41.6) sits near the top of its historical range, which has gone with weaker returns over the following decade and bigger drawdown risk — though valuation says nothing about the months ahead. None of this predicts tomorrow. It is a structured read of where the market sits today — and the honest base rate is that reacting to it by jumping in and out usually underperforms simply staying invested.
Not investment advice · a structured read, not a recommendation
Price vs 200-day average
+8.2% vs 200-DMA
Above — bull regime
The market's long-term trend filter. Above the 200-day line is the classic 'risk-on' regime; most large drawdowns happen below it.
A regime filter, not a trigger — it whipsaws in choppy markets and is always a little late.
50 / 200 crossover
Golden cross (50 > 200)
Medium-term momentum up
When the 50-day average is above the 200-day (a 'golden cross'), medium-term momentum has turned up; the reverse 'death cross' flags it turning down.
Lagging by construction — it confirms a move already underway and gives false signals in sideways markets.
RSI (14)
49
Neutral
A momentum gauge of how far and fast price has run. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold".
A condition, not a trigger — strong trends stay overbought for a long time. Extremes are a yellow flag, not a button.
12-month momentum
+24.6% (12-mo, ex last month)
Positive trend
The academically robust momentum factor — the market's return over the past year (skipping the last month). Positive momentum has, on average, tended to persist.
Works on average but reverses hard at turning points — momentum's worst moments are sharp and sudden.
Market breadth
9/11 sectors above 200-DMA (82%)
Broad participation
How many parts of the market are in their own uptrend. Broad participation is healthy; a rally led by one or two sectors is fragile.
A sector-ETF proxy, not full advance/decline breadth — directionally right but coarser.
Volatility (VIX)
15.4 (16th %ile, 1y)
Calm / complacent
The 'fear gauge' — expected volatility priced into options. Low means calm or complacency; high means fear and stress.
Contrarian and two-sided: very low VIX often precedes turbulence, very high VIX often marks panic lows — but "often" is not "always".
Valuation (Shiller CAPE)
41.6 · top 4% (30y)
Very expensive vs history
How expensive the whole market is — its price measured against ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings, known as the Shiller CAPE. It speaks to the next decade's likely returns and drawdown risk, not next month's direction. At 41.6, the market has been more expensive than 99% of all months since 1871.
Useless for timing: expensive markets have stayed expensive — and grown more expensive — for years. Read it as a weather outlook for the coming decade, not a reason to act this week. Reading as of June 2026.
How to read this — honestly
No single signal “works”, and a dashboard that hands you one confident BUY/SELL number is selling you false certainty. The value is in the pattern: when trend, breadth and momentum agree, the move is more durable; when they disagree, that tension is itself the information. Each signal here is on a different clock — the 200-day regime is a months-long lens, RSI is a days-to-weeks one — so they will and should diverge.
And the most honest thing we can tell you: across decades of data, reacting to readings like these by moving in and out of the market has usually underperformed simply staying invested — because the market's best days cluster right next to its worst. See exactly what that timing costs →
Looking at a specific stock instead of the whole market? Read its live chart and timing signals — still no buy/sell verdict.
Stock timing by ticker →Method: the trend, momentum, breadth and volatility signals are computed from daily closing prices for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the 11 sector ETFs (breadth) and the CBOE VIX, refreshed daily. 200-DMA and 50/200 cross use simple moving averages; RSI is the standard 14-period Wilder calculation; momentum is the 12-month return excluding the most recent month; breadth is the share of sector ETFs above their own 200-day average. Valuation is the Shiller CAPE — the market's price over a 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings — a slow monthly series shown with its as-of date. Price data comes from the public Yahoo Finance and FRED feeds; CAPE is Robert Shiller's series via multpl.com. This is educational, not investment advice, and not a forecast.