Wednesday, August 13th. - Stock Trends, Charts, and Commentary (***If you see last week's Wednesday Update: Click Here)
Today's chart is not a chart for short term investors, or day traders. Instead, it gives a longer term view of what is going on in the market.
The chart is a "Monthly" chart of the NYA Index going through the last Bull market and the current Bull market. The chart's intent is to show how and when the last Bull market ended and how that compares to the current Bull market..
First, look at the 2004 to 2007 time period and the blue arrows we drew on the 11 month RSI (Relative Strength). When you look at it, you can see that the RSI made a lower/low and then a lower/high before failing to the downside (red arrows). (A lower/high and a lower/low is the definition of a down trend.) After failing to the downside, the stock market began the Bear market.
Looking at what we have now is a little different. We did not make a lower/low, but we did make a lower/high at the red arrow. After that, the RSI broke a support, but still has the red support line to contend with.
The point is that this is a dangerous place to be because the market is at a pivot point. When you consider that money has been recently moving out of junk bonds to government bonds (higher safety), then there should at least be room for concern. After all, the junk bond yields fell 58% and in the past, such fears were a prelude to trouble ahead.
*** Click on the link below if you would like to send a page link of today's update to a friend or colleague.
*This Free Member page is supported by the following advertisement(s):
... Do you have a friend or fellow investor that you think would appreciate receiving a link to this page of Today's Analysis"?
If so, simply click on the link below to quickly and easily forward an email link. It is completely private, so we won't even know if you send one.
You can become a Free StockTiming Member in less than 10 seconds ...
and receive important, free Stock Market email updates every Morning ...
To become a Free Member, simply enter your information and click on the "Free" button. You willreceive Daily Updates and Alert Notices every morning before the market opens. On other occasions, you will also be sent special links to important stock market information and/or studies.
Quick and Easy StockTiming.com Free Member Sign Up